October 04, 2023
The increasing fracture of support for Ukraine not only destroyed House Speaker Kevin McCarthy but is also threatening the structures of the EU and NATO.
The Russian government had predicted that this process would happen:
The Kremlin said on Monday it believed a decision by U.S. Congress to pass a stopgap funding bill that omitted aid for Ukraine was a temporary setback for Kyiv, but forecast war fatigue in the West would grow and increasingly split opinion.
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Asked about the U.S. development, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he thought the setback for Ukraine was "a temporary phenomenon" and that Washington would clearly continue what he called its direct involvement in the conflict.But Peskov, speaking after the party of Robert Fico won a weekend election in Slovakia pledging to end military aid to Ukraine, said that Moscow had long forecast that the West would grow increasingly weary of supporting Ukraine.
"Obviously, this (the U.S. setback) is a temporary phenomenon. America will continue its involvement in this conflict, in fact direct involvement," said Peskov.
"But we have repeatedly said before that according to our forecasts fatigue from this conflict, fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime, will grow in various countries, including the United States.
"And this fatigue will lead to the fragmentation of the political establishment and the growth of contradictions."
And so it plays out:
In America, Republican voters are growing increasingly pessimistic about continuing U.S. support for Ukraine, while Democratic support has ebbed but remained relatively strong, according to recent polls.In Europe, war fatigue and domestic strain is playing out at the polls, with voters in some countries choosing leaders that are increasingly turning away from Kyiv.
Letting the war continue until the West gives up was and is obviously part of Russia's political strategy. A short war and a Ukrainian capitulation to Russia's demand for it to stay out of NATO would surely have been better. But the Biden administration wanted to 'weaken Russia' and thereby a prolonged war. It had thought that Russia could not sustain a long fight.
But only people who did not know Russia or were misinformed about its resources would have believed such nonsense. It was obvious to others that Russia has everything one needs to sustain as a nation: land, people, energy, food, minerals and an industry that is capable of making nearly everything it needs. The only way to weaken or even defeat Russia was on the battlefield. But none of the western wonder weapons was able to do make a decisive difference. Russia found counter measures to all of them.
The way out of the war requires U.S. negotiations with Russia. But the Biden administration as well as the current EU leadership are too deeply invested in Ukraine to launch serious talks. To find an end to the war will necessitate regime-change in Washington and Brussels.
The process has started. But it will still take some time. Unless the Ukrainian army suddenly collapses I do not expect any real change before the U.S. election or before a new administration has settled in.